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Mastering Poker Probability: Increase Your Winning Odds

By First Games Team March 2, 2023

Contrary to popular belief, poker strategy does not rely only on chance. Math and statistics play a significant role in it. Playing poker with a proper strategy that adheres to the poker probability chart and odds will offer you an advantage over your competitors, even if you cannot control the outcome of a poker game. Poker math is vital for knowing when and how to play the cards. While examining a poker deck, you should be aware of the various poker hands and play them appropriately.

We will examine the odds and probabilities involved with the game of poker in this blog post.

What is Probability?

Calculating the likelihood that one event will occur over another is a probability in mathematics. A coin, for instance, has two potential outcomes: heads or tails. The probability that a coin will land on heads is 50%, and the probability that it will land on tails is similarly 50%.

Poker Hands Probability

A player in poker can create a total of 2,598,960 unique 5-card hands. Let's look at the poker probability table below, which illustrates how these combinations will be divided into different hand rankings.

Basic Probability Rules Poker

It may be cumbersome to constantly consult a chart for each hand to determine the probability of improving and then relate it to the pot odds. There is a shortcut for utilizing the following approach to help you calculate the probable hands and improve on them:

  • You may obtain a reasonable estimate of the likelihood of making your hand on the turn or river by multiplying the number of outs you have on the flop by 4. (i.e., with two cards yet to come) 
  • You may calculate your odds of completing your hand on the following card by multiplying the number of outs you have on the flop or turning by 2.
  • You will likely adjust the number of outs in poker to enhance your hand and account for the likelihood of a better one. For example, if you believe your opponent will have a better flush draw or if the board pairs giving you a flush and your opponent a whole house, you may reduce your "outs" somewhat (e.g., 8.5 outs instead of 9). This modification will consider this possibility when calculating your pot chances and determining how to continue with the hand.

What Would Happen If I Wanted To Practice Poker Probability?

By utilizing the shortcut approach, you may practice poker probability. It would help if you summed the probability of various scenarios occurring to do this, for instance:

  • Making a spin while hitting one of your outs
  • Missing the turn while hitting one of your outs on the river

EXAMPLE PROBLEM  1: A Normal Flush Draw

Imagine you hold a flush draw after the flop and want to determine the likelihood of upgrading to a river flush to solve a fundamental poker probability issue.

There are still nine cards ("outs") that may be helpful to you, even though 4 of the suit's 13 cards have already been revealed.

After accounting for the two hole cards and three flip cards, there are 47 cards in the deck that are unknown to you.

Knowing this, you may do the necessary calculations and combine the results to estimate your odds of making a flush:

  • The chance of getting a flush on the turn is 9/47, 19.15%.
  • The probability of completing a flush on the river is (39/47)*(9/46)=16.23%.
  • Chances of making your flush on the river OR the turn: 19.15% + 16.23% = 35.38%

The probability of making a flush at the river after flopping a flush draw is shown to be 35.38% in this instance. Using the aforementioned "shortcut" method, you can see that nine outs multiplied by four is 36%, which is relatively near the correct response.

Poker Hands Heads-Up Probability Calculation

There is a difference in the equity spread when there is just one opponent vs. numerous opponents in a poker hand with you. The equity of each player's hand against numerous players will be less than if it were a heads-up because it will be shared and distributed among the other players.

Consider the game Pocket Aces. Versus the following Villain range for your opponent(s):

  • Any pocket pair
  • Any two broadway cards
  • Any suited Ace
  • One-gapped suited connectors: 86s to J9s
  • Suited connectors: 54s to T9s
  • Q9s, K9s

The equity ratios that Pocket Aces is up against are as follows:

  • One opponent: 83.4%
  • Two opponents: 70.6%
  • Three opponents: 60.2%
  • Four opponents: 51.4%

Yet when you have drawing hands in a multi-way situation, the number of outs you must improve may not alter with the number of opponents. But, the likelihood of someone else having a stronger draw than you or a hand that might later outdraw you increases with more opponents.

Also, when action is multi-way, it is essential to remember that players prefer to bluff less and wager more for value if they do bet.

In light of the previous two ideas, it is essential to constantly keep track of the number of opponents in hand and appropriately select the optimal play strategy.

Figuring Out the Probability of Draws

How is the probability of drawings determined? See how many exits are open to you initially. Consider all the cards that may make up your hand.

The probability of making an out should then be calculated using the "Rule of Two and Four." If the turn and river have not yet occurred, double your number of outs by four to get your probability.

If the turn and river have not yet been dealt, multiply your number of outs by four to get your probability of making an out. If the river is about to arrive, double the number of outs by two.

The above rule is not entirely correct. Yet, it is the most straightforward technique to estimate probabilities without going into more complicated mathematics.

Examples of Probabilities of Drawing a Draw

Here are a few examples that show you how to figure out your probability of hitting a draw:

  • Your hole cards are 7-8 unsuited, and the flip is 9-10-A. How likely is it that you'll hit your straight? You have a 32% probability of striking your straight. As the turn and river are yet to come, you multiply your eight outs (6-6-6-6-J-J-J-J) by four.
  • You have A-K of clubs, and the board reveals 2-5-9-10, two clubs. You have nine outs, so multiply nine by two to get an 18% probability of drawing. Just the river remains.
  • It's a good idea to constantly practice your outs so you can do so swiftly throughout a game. Poker software might help you play better online. If you wish to utilize a piece of poker software, be sure your platforms support it. Probability and Online Poker: Its Significance If you're new to poker, you may wonder why probability matters. You seldom see cowboys in Western movies counting probabilities on their fingers and spending hours calculating their pot chances, do you? Math is so crucial online that few methods exist to tell players apart. In physical games, you may see other players' hands. Instead, examine their hand odds. Correct arithmetic can help you win at online poker over time.
  • Poker probability is essential for winning. Use math because all other strong players will. While playing a typical game at the lowest stakes, you can get away with lousy poker math, but as you go up the antes, more players will use math.

Dealing with Bad Beats

While working with probabilities, you have no choice but to acknowledge the possibility that events with very low odds might nonetheless take place. Even if you have a 99% probability of winning a hand, the person with only a 1% chance of winning might still end up with the pot. When anything like this occurs, it is referred to as a poor beat, which may devastate a player's game.

While playing poker, it is simple to fall into the trap of believing that bad luck is on your side and that playing the odds is not yielding the desired results. When a player goes too far out of bounds, they run the risk of being labeled as being "on tilt." When a player is in this hyper-aggressive frame of mind, they call or raise every bet, regardless of how little a chance they have of winning the hand.

Remember that poker probability works over an extended period if you want to prevent losing a streak. Suppose you go into a hand with a 75% chance of winning and losing. In that case, you need to look forward and realize that you still have a strong possibility of gaining money if you find yourself in the same situation again because the law of probability dictates that you will. If you trust the calculations, you should discover that over time, you are the one who comes out on top.

If you believe you are on the verge of losing your mind, you should take some time off and relax. You should step away from the cash game you're now participating in and return to the tables a few hours later. If you are participating in a tournament, it is highly recommended that you take a little rest every couple of hands. You should notice that pausing allows you to settle down and restore your concentration after the break.

In Conclusion

Poker is not a game of chance, like flipping a coin. Instead, it involves a variety of talents, including the ability to apply mathematics to your advantage. Poker players that disregard poker math will likely have a significant edge over them from the minute they sit down at the table.


  • How should I play poker? Arrow
    Every poker hand has equity versus other poker hands, thus you should always play the hand that maximizes that equity, or provides you the highest chance of winning that hand. Learning their chances and how they compare to other hands is the only method to choose which poker hands to play.
  • What are outs in poker? Arrow
    An out is an unseen card that will make your hand more likely to win when pulled. Understanding how many outs you and your opponents have is essential for estimating poker hand chances and is a vital component of poker strategy.
  • What exactly is pot equity? Arrow
    Pot equity is your probability of winning the pot based on the cards you have. For instance, if your hand has a 70% probability of winning, you have 70% pot equity in hand.
  • Which poker hands have the highest probability of success? Arrow
    Even though aces create a winning hand 80% of the time, they are susceptible to losing to more vital cards. An essential pair will win the game 27% of the time, while two pairs will win the pot 31%.
  • Playing poker requires a solid mathematical background. Arrow
    There are numerous methods to be proficient in arithmetic while playing poker, but it helps. Because of their expertise, which enables them to choose whether to call, fold, or push, many skilled poker players are so.


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